Indicator 1.11 - Demographics in Eastern Iceland
The development of the Karahnjukar and Fjardaal projects is likely to lead to changes in the demographic structure of East Iceland and individual communities during the construction and operation phases.
Some of these effects will be direct, for instance, the in-migration to East Iceland of employees and their families, to work for Landsvirkjun, Fjardaál or contractors working for the two companies.
Indirect effects include the spin-off effects of the projects in terms of employment opportunities in companies providing goods and services to the projects and opportunities arising from the economic development of the East.
Performance
a. Gender and age distribution in East Iceland, compared to the country as a whole (Project effect: induced).
The graph below shows the gender and age distribution in East Iceland (Mið-Austurland, left) compared to the country as a whole (right) on December 1st, 2010. You can view a picture, plus a comparison with years 2000, 2005 and 2008-2011by clicking here.
Source: Statistics Iceland, 2010.
b. Number of inhabitants in East Iceland. (Project effect: induced)
The graph below shows the obvious effect of the East-Iceland projects on the size of the population. These show the actual number of inhabitants and changes in population from the baseline year (1998).
As the graphs show, the population declined in East Iceland between 1998 and 2002, at a time when the population was growing in the country as a whole. In 2002, at the time when construction commenced, the population in the east started to increase and, in terms of percentages, the population growth rate was greater in 2005 than it was in the country as whole.
There was a substantial decline in the population of East Iceland in 2007 to 20108. This was partly due to the sudden departure of people who had worked on the construction of the aluminium smelter and the power plant.
(Mið-Austurland = Central East Iceland)
Inhabitants in East Iceland 1998-2010*
Source: Statistics Iceland, 2011
*All numbers on population development are from 1 December each year.
Metrics, Targets and Monitoring Protocol
What is measured?
- Gender and age structure in East Iceland compared to National population. (Project effect: induced).
- Total population in East Iceland (Project effect: induced).
Targets
- Balanced age structure and sex ration in East Iceland relative to national age distribution with a regression coefficient (r²) = 1.0
- Increase in population in East Iceland.
Monitoring Protocol
- Information from Icelandic Statistics will be analyzed further by breaking it down according to age and sex in East Iceland. Infomation is sought from the Icelandic Regional Development Institute or an employee will be assigned to gather the information. This information will be collected every five years.
- Information from Statistics Iceland will be collected annually.
Rationale for Indicator Selection
Gender and age balanced communities are an indicator of a stable society. The gender and age structure of many communities in East Iceland has been affected by the “pull” effect of economic growth and associated employment opportunities in the capital Region in and around Reykjavik.
The report on the socio-economic impact of the Fjardaal project links this to a limited range of employment opportunities and high proportions of low-paying jobs in East Iceland.
The development of the Karahnjukar and Fjardaal projects is likely to lead to changes in the demographic structure of East Iceland and individual communities during the construction and operation phases. Some of these effects will be direct, for instance, the in-migration to East Iceland of employees and their families. Indirect effects include the spin-off effects of the projects in terms of employment opportunities in companies providing goods and services to the projects and opportunities arising from the economic development of the East.
