Indicator 1.18 - Community Wellbeing

Crime is often the result of a society that is unstable and not socially cohesive. Crime rate, measured by crimes per capita, can be a useful indicator for measuring social wellbeing and the safety of a community.

Inhabitants of a community with a low crime rate will experience higher quality of life and social cohesion than a community experiencing high crime rates. Alcoa and Landsvirkjun have had a social impact on the region by attracting new workers and inhabitants to the area. Monitoring levels of crime helps to indicate the degree of long-term stability in the areas.

The Alcoa and Landsvirkjun projects will also increase the numbers of cars in the Fljótsdalur and Fjardaal areas due to employees driving to/from the sites as well as commercial traffic delivering supplies and raw materials to the projects. Monitoring the occurrence of traffic accidents on specific roads associated with the projects will help indicate overall traffic safety so accident mitigation measures could be implemented, if necessary.

Performance

a. Number of crimes for financial gains, assaults and vandalism per capita in East Iceland and Nationally.

As can be seen on the following graphs, the number of crimes for financial gains and vandalism is fewer per capita in East Iceland than nationally and it does not look like the projects are influencing this trend. When data for assaults is analysed it is more difficult to read a clear trend since in one of the police district in East Iceland the per capita rate is higher than the national rate, but lower in the other district. It is too early to draw any conclusions about if the projects are influencing those rates or not. It should be pointed out that rates for assaults is calculated from much fewer incidents than crimes for financial gains and vandalims, which means that specific incidents can influence the average rate more proportionally.

Graph1: Embezzlements, Financial Gain
The graph below shows the number of embezzlements in Iceland as a whole vs. East-Iceland in 2002-2010. As can be seen, the rate is lower in East-Iceland than nationally. There is no significantly negative change noticeable after the projects started.

Source: The National Commissioner of Police 

Graph 2: Homicides and Assults
The graph below shows the development in the number of homicides and assults in Iceland as a whole vs. East-Iceland in 2002-2010. Assaults increased considerably in East-Iceland in 2003 when the construction of the power plant and smelter started. Since then, the number has decreased, and in 2007, assaults were fewer than before the projects started. The number kept decreasing until 2009, but in 2012 it went up and is now considerably higher than the national figure. Homicides and assaults have in the period 2002-2007 been been more frequent in East-Iceland than nationally.

Source: The National Commissioner of Police

Graph3: Destruction of Property
The graph below shows the number of destructions of property in Iceland  vs. East-Iceland in 2002-2010. As can be seen, the rate is lower in East-Iceland than nationally, but the number has gone up and down between years.

Source: The National Commissioner of Police

b. Number of accidents per km on selected roads

Graph 4 shows the accident rate per one million driven kilometers on the following routes in 2002-2009:

1. Egilsstadir - Reydarfjördur (smelter)
   
2. Fáskrúdsfjördur - Reydarfjördur (smelter)
   
3. Egilsstadir - Hallormsstadaskógur (power station)
   

It is worth noticing that the opening of the Fáskrúdsfjördur Tunnel in 2005 has had positive effects on traffic safety between Fáskrúdsfjördur and Reydarfjördur. The accident rate had, in the previous years, been growing steadily, but drops down from 6.59 to 0.25 in the period 2004-2006. The accident rate on that route went up in 2006-2008, but dropped again in 2009 and is now only a fraction of what it was before the tunnel was opened.

As for the other two routes, the rate swung upwards while the power station and the smelter were under construction, but it has been going down since 2006.

Graph 4: Accident rate per million driven kilometers on chosen routes

Source: The Public Road Authority 2002-2011 (latest figures from 2009, last updated 24 Nov. 2011).

c. Number of drug violations per capita in local communities compared with national average.

The police jurisdictions that cover East Iceland are Seydisfjördur and Eskifjördur. The drug offence figures for East Iceland should be viewed with caution, since one has to take into account the regular visits of the Norraena ferry to Seydisfjördur. There have been regular cases of drug smuggling on the Norraena ferry, which has substantially pushed up the incidence of drug offences in East Iceland per 10,000 inhabitants.

Graph 5 shows that drug violations have increased after the construction of the power station and smelter started. The number of violations reaches a peak in 2005, but then goes down 30% next year, and goes on decreasing. However, the number went up again in 2008-2009. The number keeps growing and in 2010 it is higher than the national average. There seems to be no correlation between the development in East-Iceland and in Iceland as a whole.

Source: The National Commissioner of Police 2003-2011.

Metrics, Targets and Monitoring Protocol

Metrics: What is measured? 

1. Number of crimes for financial gains, assaults and vandalism per capita in East Iceland and nationally. (Project effect: induced).
2. Number of accidents per km on selected roads. (Project effect: induced):
   
3. 1. Road between Egilsstadir and Reydarfjordur.
   2. Road between Faskrudsfjordur and Reydarfjordur.
   3. Road from Egilsstadir to Hallormsstadaskogur.
4. Number of drug violations per capita in local communities compared with national average. (Project effect: induced).

Targets 

1. East Iceland crime rate lower than the national per capita crime rate.
2. Accident rate (per million km driven) less than or equal to the baseline. The accident rate is determined from number of accidents and km drivens that are monitored. Surveillance system established and run by the Public Road Authority.
3. Number of violations (per 10,000 inhabitants) less than or equal to the baseline.

Monitoring Protocol

1. The National Commissioner of Police publishes reports with crime rates, broken down by police districts, on its website. Every incident is registered.
   
2. Information about accidents per km on selected roads is collected by the Public Road Authority, that has meters counting the number of cars passing on different roads. Information is gathered by automatic counting.
   
3. From police reports.

Rationale for Indicator Selection

Crime is often the result of a society that is unstable and not socially cohesive. Crime rate, measured by crimes per capita, can be a useful indicator for measuring social wellbeing and the safety of a community.

Inhabitants of a community with a low crime rate will experience higher quality of life and social cohesion than a community experiencing high crime rates. Alcoa and Landsvirkjun have had a social impact on the region by attracting new workers and inhabitants to the area. Monitoring levels of crime helps to indicate the degree of long-term stability in the areas.

The Alcoa and Landsvirkjun projects will also increase the numbers of cars in the Fljótsdalur and Fjardaal areas due to employees driving to/from the sites as well as commercial traffic delivering supplies and raw materials to the projects. Monitoring the occurrence of traffic accidents on specific roads associated with the projects will help indicate overall traffic safety so accident mitigation measures could be implemented, if necessary.